Using logistic regression to model the risk of sewer overflows triggered by compound flooding with application to sea level rise

نویسندگان

چکیده

Coastal wastewater and storm water systems can be overwhelmed during high precipitation events, particularly when compounded by surge that blocks spillways drainage ways. Sea level rise (SLR) brings increased risk of such compound flooding triggering sanitary sewer overflows (SSO) which release waste into the local environment. A logistic regression model was developed to better predict this in southern Pinellas County, FL. Model variables were selected from 2000 2017 cumulative coastal levels using both objective subjective criteria. The 2 day (P2) 90 (P90) precipitation, maximum (W2) identified as significant predictors p-value their coefficients, but required an interaction term P2*W2 for fidelity. correctly hindcasted all 6 SSOs 2017. SLR represented a range values up 0.5 m added W2. For number SSO days factor 42–52 individual events ~15. Subtracting recent W2 reduced probability some suggesting already is increasing rate SSOs.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Matrix variate logistic regression model with application to EEG data.

Logistic regression has been widely applied in the field of biomedical research for a long time. In some applications, the covariates of interest have a natural structure, such as that of a matrix, at the time of collection. The rows and columns of the covariate matrix then have certain physical meanings, and they must contain useful information regarding the response. If we simply stack the co...

متن کامل

Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding.

Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from...

متن کامل

Uncertainties in Tidally Adjusted Estimates of Sea Level Rise Flooding (Bathtub Model) for the Greater London

Sea-level rise (SLR) from global warming may have severe consequences for coastal cities, particularly when combined with predicted increases in the strength of tidal surges. Predicting the regional impact of SLR flooding is strongly dependent on the modelling approach and accuracy of topographic data. Here, the areas under risk of sea water flooding for London boroughs were quantified based on...

متن کامل

Sea-level Rise Forecast Model

The paper analyzes the melting pace of ice cap in the North Pole and its influence on the rising sea level. The paper constructs the linear and non-linear models between rising sea level and the year by quoting data from Florida Tide Gage Station. The paper also contrasts the two models and selects the non-linear model. By adopting the model, the paper predicts the height of rising sea level ev...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: urban climate

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2212-0955']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100752